77% of Players Left Ryuichi Sakamoto Alive.

36,940 guesses across 3,694 players, and the week's defining number is 23%—the accuracy rate on Ryuichi Sakamoto. Everything else was almost a footnote. The bold-wagering story was more encouraging: players who went 3x hit 78%, well above the 67% on 1x bets. The bold-and-right rate sat at 45%, which is fine. The problem was knowing where to be bold.

By the Numbers

Total guesses

36,940

Average accuracy

71%

Hardest celebrity

Ryuichi Sakamoto (23%)

Easiest celebrity

Keanu Reeves (100%)

Biggest upset

Judith Jamison

Players this week

3,694

Perfect rounds

285

Wager mix

1× 53% · 2× 6% · 3× 41%

What stood out

Five celebrities landed within a percentage point of 50–50, which is a lot of genuine uncertainty for a single week. Dick Van Dyke split the field exactly 50–50—alive is correct. Gilda Radner went 51% alive, 49% deceased—deceased is correct. Bruce Dern, Willie Nelson, and Bob Dole were just as indecisive. If you wagered 3x on any of those, you were essentially flipping a coin at double stakes.

Judith Jamison was the biggest upset of the week: 75% of players called her alive. She's deceased. That's a 25% accuracy rate on 415 guesses—bad, but still not the worst on the board.

Keanu Reeves was the gimme: 100% accuracy across 620 guesses. Not a single wrong answer. The 285 perfect rounds this week—about 1 in 13 players—likely owe him a thank-you.

Featured: Ryuichi Sakamoto

77% of players guessed Ryuichi Sakamoto alive. He's deceased. That's a 23% accuracy rate on 596 guesses—worst of the week, and the clearest data story to tell. The musician active from the 1970s through the 2020s was treated as a safe alive call by most of the field, and most of the field was wrong. It's also worth noting the wager behavior: on a celebrity this uncertain, players who went 3x were betting against themselves at a rate that shows up in the overall bold-and-right figure. The miss was confident.

Honorable mentions

• Judith Jamison at 25% accuracy—the second-biggest miss. Three-quarters of players called the dancer and choreographer alive.
• Alexei Navalny at 37% accuracy—63% of players called him alive. He's deceased.
• James Patterson at 33% accuracy—67% of players called the author deceased. He's alive. A quiet upset buried under louder misses.
• Sophia Loren at 44%—56% of players called her deceased. She's alive.
• Marlon Brando at 48%—52% of players called him alive. He's deceased. The 1970s actor nearly split the field clean.