28,120 guesses, 2,812 players, and a week defined by aggressive wagering that mostly held up — until it didn't. Half of all wagers were 3x, and players who went bold hit 76% accuracy against 67% on 1x. The bold-and-right rate came in at 53%. Ninety-eight perfect rounds, which is solid. Then there was Garry Kasparov, who quietly wrecked everyone.

By the Numbers

Total guesses: 28,120
Average accuracy: 72%
Hardest celebrity: Garry Kasparov (27%)
Easiest celebrity: Simone Biles (99%)
Biggest upset: Sandy Koufax
Players this week: 2,812
Perfect rounds: 98
Wager mix: 1× 44% · 2× 6% · 3× 50%

What stood out

Mel Brooks split the field 49–51, the closest call of the week. He's alive; 51% of players called him deceased. On 514 guesses, that's essentially a coin flip. Carl Lewis wasn't far behind — 54% called him deceased, he's alive, 46% accuracy on 435 guesses.

How 514 players guessed Mel Brooks

Alive

49%

Dead

51%

Michael Crichton flipped that dynamic: 54% of players called him alive. He's deceased. Same problem, opposite direction, nearly identical margin. George H.W. Bush had it worse — 57% called him alive, he's deceased, only 43% correct.

How 514 players guessed Michael Crichton

Alive

54%

Dead

46%

On the other end: Simone Biles at 99% was the gimme, and Sandy Koufax was the biggest upset on the alive side — 65% of players called him deceased. He's alive. Only 35% got it right.

Featured: Garry Kasparov

Portrait of Garry Kasparov — other
Garry Kasparov
1980s-2000s · Russian
He became the youngest world chess champion in history and was the first world champion to lose a match to a computer when he was defeated by IBM's Deep Blue in a highly publicized rematch.

The hardest miss of the week, and it wasn't subtle. 73% of players called Garry Kasparov deceased. He's alive. That's 27% accuracy on 281 guesses — worst on the board by a wide margin. The 1980s–2000s chess champion ran on a smaller sample, but the wrong-direction confidence was uniform across wager tiers. Players who went 3x were just as wrong as the cautious ones. Make of that what you will.

Honorable mentions

Don DeLillo at 39% accuracy — 61% of players called the author deceased. He's alive. Quiet trap.
Herbie Hancock at 40% — 60% called the 1960s–1980s musician deceased. Also alive.
John Cale at 43% — 57% called him deceased. Alive. Three musicians active in the 1960s–1970s, three misses in the same direction.
Simone Biles at 99% and Bad Bunny at 95% — the floor held up fine on contemporary faces. It's the middle decades that keep causing trouble.
961 bonus exact-year hits, which is the highest I've seen in a while. Players went bold and precise. The Kasparov result stings a little more in that context.