1,795 players, 17,950 guesses, and a wager column that committed: 52% of all bets went 3x, with 1x falling to 44%. Accuracy on those bold guesses hit 81% — the best-performing tier by a wide margin. The bold-and-right rate landed at 56%. On paper, a week that rewarded confidence. One author from the 1960s–2010s had other ideas.
By the Numbers
- Total guesses
- 17,950
- Average accuracy
- 76%
- Hardest celebrity
Joan Didion (11%)- Easiest celebrity
Lucille Ball (99%)- Biggest upset
- Joan Didion
- Players this week
- 1,795
- Perfect rounds
- 149
- Wager mix
- 1× 44% · 2× 5% · 3× 52%
What stood out
Roxane Gay split the field 49–51 on 289 guesses — the closest call of the week. She's alive; 51% of players called her deceased. Right behind her: 
Barry Bonds at 51% accuracy, essentially a coin flip in the other direction.
How 289 players guessed Roxane Gay
Alex Lifeson also ran wrong-direction: 54% of players called him deceased. He's alive. 46% accuracy on 289 guesses. 
Marc Benioff landed at 42% — 58% of the field called him deceased. He's alive. Business figures from the 2000s–2020s are a reliable trap, and this week they delivered.
Mick Fleetwood fooled 71% of players — most called him deceased. He's alive. 29% accuracy on 303 guesses. 
John Coltrane ran the opposite way: 71% of players called him alive. He's deceased. Two musicians, same confusion rate, mirror directions. Make of that what you will.
149 perfect rounds out of 1,795 players. Lucille Ball was the gimme at 99%, with 
Rihanna and 
John Krasinski right behind her. Bonus exact-year hits came in at 501.
Featured: Joan Didion
She always traveled with a suitcase packed and ready because she believed she might need to leave immediately, and she kept a Corvette Stingray well into her 80s despite barely driving it.
Eighty-nine percent of players called Joan Didion alive. She's deceased. That's 11% accuracy on 246 guesses — worst on the board and the week's biggest upset by a distance. In a 3x-heavy week, a wrong-direction miss at this scale did the most damage possible to scores. Players who wagered bold on a wrong call here felt it. The author ran on a clean sample and the error didn't budge.
How 246 players guessed Joan DidionHonorable mentions
Joe Frazier at 24% accuracy — 76% of players called the 1960s–1970s athlete alive. He's deceased. A quiet wrong-direction miss that cost bold players.
Akira Toriyama at 31% — 69% of players called him alive. He's deceased. Wrong-direction on a well-known artist, and it wasn't close.- John Coltrane at 29% — the 1950s–1960s musician fooled 71% of players into calling him alive. He's deceased. Third time a jazz name has run this direction and it's gone roughly the same way every time.
Jack Welch at 57% — the closest correct-majority call of the week. Only just.