1,780 players, 52% of wagers at 3x, and an accuracy-by-wager spread that looked good on paper: players who went bold hit 81% on those bets versus 70% on 1x. The bold-and-right rate landed at 56%. Then a Polish politician from the 1980s–1990s quietly dismantled a large share of those confident guesses.
By the Numbers
- Total guesses
- 17,800
- Average accuracy
- 76%
- Hardest celebrity
Lech Walesa (7%)- Easiest celebrity
Barack Obama (100%)- Biggest upset
- Lech Walesa
- Players this week
- 1,780
- Perfect rounds
- 83
- Wager mix
- 1× 43% · 2× 5% · 3× 52%
What stood out
River Phoenix split the field exactly 50–50 on 216 guesses. He's deceased; half the room called him alive. That's the sharpest coin-flip of the week, and in a 3x-heavy field, landing on the wrong side of a pure coin flip stings. Right behind him: 
Bill Wyman at 52% accuracy — 48% of players called the 1960s–1990s musician deceased. He's alive.
How 216 players guessed River Phoenix
Jimmy Page ran wrong-direction: 55% of players called him deceased. He's alive. 45% accuracy on 278 guesses. 
Joe Montana fared worse — 70% of players called the 1980s athlete deceased. He's alive. 30% accuracy. Sports figures from a few decades back have been a reliable trap category, and this week they delivered again.
Stephen Sondheim also went the wrong way: 69% of players called him alive. He's deceased. 31% accuracy on 241 guesses. 
Vivienne Westwood and 
Ryuichi Sakamoto each fooled roughly 83% of the field — both deceased, both called alive by a wide majority.
83 perfect rounds out of 1,780 players. Bonus exact-year hits came in at 471.
Featured: Lech Walesa
He was an electrician who climbed over the Gdansk Shipyard fence to join striking workers, and he famously signed the Gdansk Agreement with a giant souvenir pen featuring the Pope's image.
93% of players called Lech Walesa deceased. He's alive. That's 7% accuracy on 267 guesses — worst on the board and the week's biggest upset by a distance. With 52% of all wagers at 3x, a miss this lopsided did maximum damage to scores across the board. The 1980s–1990s politician ran on a solid sample size and the error didn't budge. There was no clever wager tier that got you clear of it.
How 267 players guessed Lech WalesaHonorable mentions
Jack Nicklaus at 27% accuracy — 73% of players called the 1970s–1980s athlete deceased. He's alive. A quiet wrong-direction miss that cost bold players.
Zaha Hadid at 10% — 90% of players called the 1980s–2010s architect alive. She's deceased. Not a quiet miss at all.
Clive Davis at 72% — correctly called deceased by most, but 28% of players called him alive. He's deceased. Business figures from the 1960s–2010s remain a soft trap.- Barack Obama at 100% — the gimme of the week, on 289 guesses, with no exceptions. The field earned that one.